Welcome to our quarterly investment wrap up. In this edition we discuss what went well in the markets last quarter, what captured the attention of our investment team, and we share our insight into how to deal with the current market ups and downs.

Introduction

The first quarter of 2026 had mixed results. Global markets have generally been positive since April 2025, but March 2026 brought volatility and weaker returns. These ups and downs are a normal part of investing, while the longer-term trend has remained positive.

What went well in the March quarter?

• Earlier gains offset March weakness – Markets were positive in January and February, supporting portfolios despite the March pullback.
• New Zealand exports stayed strong – Dairy and agriculture continued to support the economy.
• Positive long-term trends – Despite short-term swings, returns since April 2025 have been positive.

What captured our attention?

• Markets fell sharply in March – Volatility increased, affecting quarterly returns.
• Geopolitical tensions rose – Conflicts in the Middle East created uncertainty for trade and energy.
• Oil prices increased – Higher energy costs added to inflation worries.
• Interest rates remained high – Central banks signalled that rates are likely to stay elevated for now.
• Uneven global growth – The US remained relatively strong, while Europe and China slowed.
• Markets reacted quickly to news – Daily updates drove short-term swings.
• Opportunities exist amid volatility – Patient investors can still find long-term opportunities.

Market commentary

Since April 2025, global markets have delivered generally positive returns, supported by easing inflation, solid corporate earnings, and steady economic growth. Investors benefited from these gains, even though periods of volatility, such as March 2026, are normal.

March was challenging. Share markets fell due to geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices. Inflation concerns returned, and markets moved sharply in response to economic news. Earlier gains in the quarter helped offset some of these declines.

In New Zealand, domestic shares were affected by higher interest rates and slower household spending. Strong export income, especially from dairy and agriculture, continued to support the economy. Central banks, including the Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, signalled that rates are likely to remain unchanged, keeping markets sensitive to new information.

Key takeaways and staying calm

Markets naturally move up and down. While March saw a pullback, the overall trend since April 2025 has been positive. Short-term swings are normal, and focusing on long-term goals with a diversified approach helps navigate volatility.

When markets fall, it’s natural to feel uncertain. Losses often feel stronger than gains, creating an urge to act quickly, but reacting in the moment can lead to decisions that are hard to reverse. Periods of market volatility are part of the investment journey and have occurred many times historically. Falling markets can also create opportunities, allowing our managers to buy quality assets at lower prices.

During unsettled times, focus on why you invested in the first place. Investments exist to support long-term goals like retirement, buying a home, or financial security. Check that your investments still match your timeframe and comfort level, understand what you are invested in, and ensure short-term funds are available. Sometimes, the most valuable decision is not to react, staying the course can make a significant difference over time. The hardest part is staying calm when markets feel uncertain. Thoughtful decisions help keep your long-term goals on track, even when short-term swings are uncomfortable.

The above information is for information purposes only and is not financial advice. Past returns are not a guarantee of future returns. We recommend you seek advice from a licensed financial advice provider when making decisions about your investments.

The New Zealand Anglican Church Pension Board trading as Anglican Financial Care are the manager and issuer of Christian KiwiSaver Scheme, The Retire Fund and The New Zealand Anglican Church Pension Fund. Product Disclosure Statements and Fund Updates are available on the Documents page of the AFC website Forms and Documents.